Consumer sentiment as measured by a longstanding University of Michigan survey is at a 10 year low, and the costs of health care, housing, child care and food are rising. But Ohio’s retailers are still expecting a good holiday season this year.
Holiday sales in Ohio are expected to increase by 3.1% to $32 billion, which is similar to forecasts for national spending. That's up from the 2.5% retail sales growth during the holidays last year.
"We are expecting growth in holiday spending in six of the nine metropolitan areas in Ohio," said Brad Evans, co-executive director of the University of Cincinnati Economics Center, which did the forecast for the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants. "Akron and Mansfield are expected to experience a drop in holiday spending. And Toledo is forecasted to remain flat compared to the 2024 holiday season."
Here's the Economic Center's forecast for holiday spending for nine Ohio metro areas:
- Akron -0.4%
- Cincinnati: 3%
- Cleveland: 5%
- Columbus: 1.6%
- Dayton: 2.5%
- Lima: 0.2%
- Mansfield -4.4%
- Toledo 0.0%
- Youngstown: 0.4%
Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland are expected to account for 55.5% of total holiday spending in Ohio this holiday season.
Online shopping continues to be a big part of retail sales, spiking during the COVID pandemic but stabilizing since then. E-commerce sales over the last five years have seen an average growth of around 18.5%, while growth in all retail sales averaged more than 3%.
Though the report noted housing prices are up in Ohio and household debt is on the rise. Evans said there are some positive signs in Ohio's economy. While the state's unemployment rate has jumped 51% since it hit a 22-year low of 3.3% in July 2023, the Economics Center said the state has seen sustained job growth since coming back to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. The report said employment in Ohio from January through August of 2025 was 0.9% higher than the same period in 2024, and wages and salaries have increased by 4.8% over the last year.
While the report notes that inflation has started to cool somewhat, year-over-year inflation in September of 2025 increased to 3.1%. But Evans said the forecast doesn’t show negative impacts of inflation or tariffs that have been put in place by President Trump.
“If people start to expect higher inflation, the tariffs could lead to persistent inflation. But provided that those tariffs don't become part of people's inflation expectations, the inflation increase should just be transitory," Evans said.
The forecast covers spending for November, December and January, and doesn't include spending on vehicles, at gas stations or on food service.
