Ohio used to be a swing state in presidential years, but Republican Donald Trump won it in 2016 and 2020, and Republicans have won most statewide races in the last few decades.
But Ohio Democrats have noticed new energy following President Biden’s departure from the race and polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris gaining on Trump or leading in some states. And they're hoping that could push Ohio toward purple this year.
All major presidential vote predicting sites have listed Ohio as a safe Republican state. But the New York Times recently reported Republican polling in Ohio showed Trump leading but under 50%.
"I don't know if I would make all that much of that," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, and an Ohio native. "My guess is that Trump would still win Ohio by 5 to 10 points. Maybe it falls a little bit outside of that range, but it was 8 points in both 2016 and 2020."
Ohio voted twice for President Obama, but Republicans have won 88% of all statewide elections since 1994, and most experts believe Ohio is no longer a swing state. But Ohio voted twice for President Obama. The enthusiasm that's being generated by the Democratic National Convention has Ohioans in the party hoping for a turnaround. But Kondik is skeptical.
“If Ohio were to fall into that position that would broadly be really bad for Donald Trump, because if Ohio was really competitive, presumably that would mean Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota were all clearly going Democratic for president," Kondik said.
But he said polls are also showing incumbent Democratic US Sen. Sherrod Brown appeals to Republicans in Ohio, though there’s concern his GOP opponent Bernie Moreno will eventually meet Trump in vote totals.
“The worry, I think, for Democrats would be that Moreno rises up to meet Trump where he's at in the polls, and maybe Brown isn't able to get that kind of crossover support," Kondik said. "Brown seems to be holding his own, based on the public numbers that we have. But I think it's still pretty clearly a toss-up kind of race.”
